CZ Chinese Community AMA: Supercycle, Memecoins, Alt Season, and Derivatives Risk

On January 14, Binance founder CZ hosted a Chinese-language AMA with the community, diving deep into the future direction of Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. He discussed the possibility of a market supercycle and shared thoughts on investment strategies for the industry. CZ emphasized the impact of U.S. policy on markets, especially the growing interplay between equities and crypto.

He also shared insights on building crypto communities, the rise of memecoins, and the broader trend toward decentralization, while underscoring the importance of compliance in the crypto industry. In addition, CZ expressed optimism about the future potential of prediction markets and AI-powered code generation. He offered advice to investors-especially new traders-highlighting the importance of risk management and maintaining a long-term perspective.

The audio transcription is done by GPT and may contain errors. Please listen to the complete podcast:

XiaoyuzhouFM: https://www.xiaoyuzhoufm.com/episodes/69692a3def1cf272a79c51eb

YouTube:

Are there better ways to expand the user base?

CZ: I think it depends on the individual’s situation. If your network is deep within academia, business, or education, different approaches may be required for each. The best method is for everyone to contribute in their own way to educating the industry. If each person does a little, the collective impact will grow, and ultimately, the user base will expand.

Has the supercycle already begun? Will 2026 mark a new starting point?

CZ: When I talk about a supercycle, I refer to Bitcoin’s typical four-year cycle, which has been very clear throughout history. If we follow historical cycles, this year could be a bear market, since 2020 and 2021 were bear markets, and 2017 was a bull market, with most of the following years being bear markets.

So when I mention a supercycle or a super bull market, I usually think in terms of years. This year, however, might be different. From a simple logical perspective, even though Bitcoin has a four-year cycle, this year could diverge. The biggest possibility is that the policies currently being rolled out by the U.S. are very friendly to Bitcoin. Additionally, the U.S. President might implement a series of policies to boost the stock market in preparation for the midterm elections.

If the U.S. stock market performs better, the stock market’s strength could surpass Bitcoin or the traditional four-year cycle of digital currencies. I think this is quite likely, though of course, it could be wrong. So, there’s no need to get too hung up on what I’m saying. This is just my personal view. By the way, Korea has recently allowed listed companies to engage in cryptocurrency trading, which is a positive long-term trend for the industry as a whole. My perspective is that I always lean toward the positive side, so I’m very optimistic about the future.

Can you hold a giveaway on Twitter?

CZ: Thank you for the suggestion. But I think the giveaway that He Yi did was something she wanted to do. Personally, I keep it simple on social media. I usually just post tweets, and that’s it-no images or anything fancy. I tend to keep it straightforward. I feel like that kind of giveaway model is a bit too complicated, with the need to choose winners, alternates, and so on.

Also, when it comes to replies and actions, almost 99.9% of my Twitter is managed by me, so I don’t have the time to do these kinds of activities. While I understand your suggestion, for the time being, I’ll stick with keeping interactions as simple as possible. I hope you understand.

What’s the outlook for prediction markets in 2026?

CZ: I think prediction markets will likely be a big industry in the long term-this is just my personal view. However, it’s still hard to tell exactly how big or small this sector will be. Some people are making a lot of noise, but it might be a bit exaggerated. In the short term, predicting who will win or lose is still very difficult. Prediction markets are still a very new space, and right now, the main players are projects like Kalshi and Polymarket.

Kalshi hasn’t really entered the crypto space, while Polymarket gained some fame during the last major election but has faced challenges, like needing to block U.S. users and re-purchase licenses. These two projects have proven the existence of the market, but we’re likely to see many new competitors emerge-perhaps hundreds or even thousands. It’s still unclear which formats will succeed in each country or which regulatory policies will be most suitable.

For example, there are very few market makers in prediction markets right now. Only one or two traditional market makers are involved, and they’re mostly limited to sports events. When it comes to predicting other kinds of outcomes, it’s harder to make that work. The industry still doesn’t have clear solutions to these problems.

At this point, the sector is still in its very early stages, but we’ve already made a lot of investments in this field and supported several projects. While there might be competition between these projects, we’re supporting the success of each one.

Will AI become the mainstream direction in the future?

CZ: I believe AI will definitely write a lot of code in the future-this is very clear. Thanks to AI, the speed and quality of code writing have already improved significantly.

Just yesterday, I heard a number: a traditional financial company wrote about 2 million lines of code over the past 7 years. In just the past year, using AI, they’ve written almost the same amount of code. And this AI-generated code isn’t just copy-pasting; it’s very streamlined and practical. So, I believe AI will greatly enhance human productivity and output.

For developers, this is a very positive thing for humanity, as long as we apply this technology in the right ways. Of course, many people use AI to write programs that aren’t very useful, but in every market, 70% to 80% of attempts fail. However, the few successful cases can be very impactful. Overall, AI will help increase the volume and quality of code, as well as our overall productivity.

Is the memecoin market fair?

CZ: Honestly, memecoins and other projects on the blockchain are inherently decentralized. In a decentralized environment, there will always be some people who are faster than others, and as the market develops, their efficiency will continue to improve.

Some regular retail investors aren’t as professional, so their efficiency tends to be lower, and over time, this gap will widen. Introducing third-party intervention could be beneficial, but it could also lead to centralization. Plus, the way that intervention would work is hard to define. When people see the memecoin information I share, they’ll often post their own content based on their perspective.

Of course, some people specialize in this kind of activity and move faster. If others follow them, they might succeed, but if they don’t, there’s no value. Early participants have to take risks, so they might face losses. Later participants, if they feel it’s unfair, can choose not to follow. Personally, I don’t think I need to intervene too much in this. It should develop naturally within the community.

Additionally, my tweets won’t change because of what others say. In the decentralized world, I have my freedom and won’t be influenced by external factors. I understand the situation, but I don’t feel like it’s my place to intervene.

A truly successful memecoin should have a long-lasting legacy, like Doge. There are almost no new memecoins that maintain their value in the long run.

You can play with them, but you should be aware that it’s your own choice. The risk with memecoins is very high, and the probability of failure is much greater, although it’s possible to strike it rich overnight, the chances of success are low. You need to take responsibility for your own choices. This is my view.

Is there a chance Bitcoin could reach $200,000?

CZ: Haha, that’s a really tough question to answer. The hardest part is timing. I’ve always been bullish on Bitcoin and believe that over time, it’s hard to see a ceiling. So, I think reaching $200,000 is just a matter of when, not if. But I’m not sure exactly when that will happen.

The future of Binance Square and its approach to creators

CZ: I can only share some personal thoughts on this, as the specific direction will depend on the team. I hope Binance Square can be more interactive. As a heavy Twitter user, I feel many social platforms don’t do a great job at content curation and recommendation, especially when it comes to precisely delivering interesting content to users who are actually interested.

Douyin (TikTok) does a good job in this regard, but sometimes it goes too far, leading to addiction and monotony. Many platforms could improve in terms of content filtering and delivery. As for AI-generated content, it looks eye-catching now, but a lot of it is just time-wasting with little substance. I hope social media platforms like Facebook can improve in this area as well.

Binance Square is different from other platforms in that most users are KYC verified, making transactions and transfers much easier. In contrast, while X platform claims to have 700 million users, it’s unclear if all of them have completed KYC. Binance supports KYC in over 180 countries, which gives us a natural advantage in this area. So, I believe Binance Square has a lot of potential.

Does community building have potential and prospects?

CZ: This question is simple. I believe community building is definitely valuable, especially in the long run. The definition of community building is very broad, but the key is whether what’s created is being used. Whether it’s a product, a community, or a memecoin-if there are users, it has value. If no one is paying attention, it has no value.

So, in the long term, I believe community building will always have value. It’s really that simple.

What are your short-term and long-term expectations for memecoins?

CZ: My expectations are simple. I hope all sectors, especially the memecoin sector, continue to grow. In the long term, the most important thing is that these projects are actually used or have followers. So my view on memecoins is straightforward-I don’t dismiss any sector, and I actually enjoy playing with memecoins myself. However, memecoins aren’t really for me. I typically don’t engage in short-term speculative plays, like making ten times your money overnight. For me, that’s not very meaningful, even though many people are interested in memecoins.

As builders, we aim to provide better and smoother tools, especially for trading memecoins, where system demands are very high. Whether it’s decentralized real-time data fetching or other technical requirements, the challenges to the system and product are significant. So, I hope that within our ecosystem, products and systems will continue to improve and become more user-friendly. Markets always go through cycles, and as we make our platform and products more usable, more and more people will naturally adopt them.

Do the creator rules on Binance Square need to be more detailed?

CZ: This question is a bit broad. In fact, I spend more time on X (Twitter) than on Binance Square, because X tends to attract more non-Binance users. From my personal experience, there are still some differences between Binance Square and X. As for the creator rules you mentioned, I don’t know much about them yet, but I’ll take some time to understand the differences between these two platforms.

If you have more specific feedback, especially if there are particular rules you feel are problematic, feel free to share them with me directly. That way, I can better understand the issue. After all, many products aren’t perfect when they’re first developed; they need ongoing refinement and a lot of user feedback. From my experience, the more direct the feedback, the more helpful it is.

You can DM me or anyone else, and we can have a more detailed discussion about this later.

Can we distribute red envelopes on Binance Square to increase engagement?

CZ: I actually strongly advise against relying solely on people like me or He Yi to post tweets. I’m not sure how that strategy came about, but I think it’s neither healthy nor effective. Truly sustainable memecoins should have a strong cultural background and legacy, built up by the community over time. Posting different tweets every day, changing the content around, won’t consistently attract user attention in the long run. That strategy might not be the best, and if everyone stops depending on it, it might actually be better.

As for your suggestion, it’s definitely something we can consider, like supporting alpha projects by distributing red envelopes on Binance Square to increase community engagement. However, right now I’m not clear on who’s specifically responsible for these alpha projects, nor am I sure about their listing process. Regardless, we can take your suggestion into account and explore how to implement it further.

Has the memecoin market regressed into a global casino?

CZ: This is a more philosophical and broad question, so it’s hard to give a precise answer. Markets go through cycles, and it’s difficult to determine whether we’re at a high point or low point right now. I think this year could be a supercycle, or it could be that the four-year cycle of digital currencies is stronger-it’s hard to say.

There are certainly issues with VC-backed projects, especially many that perform well when they launch but quickly fall into a death spiral. Most VC projects are led by venture capital firms, and early investors often package the project very well to make it look attractive. But VCs have an exit pressure-they’re not long-term holders and typically need to generate returns within the fund’s lifecycle. So when these projects go public, there’s often heavy selling pressure, with retail investors becoming the main buyers. This phenomenon also happens frequently in traditional IPO markets. In the past, IPOs were about raising funds for the company, but now it’s more about VCs exiting.

As for memecoins, their situation isn’t exactly the same. Some projects are backed by professional teams that quickly buy and push up the price. So, which approach is better really depends on each project’s specifics. My advice is for everyone to learn how to assess risks and take responsibility for their decisions. No one is forcing you to buy a certain coin, and risk management is extremely important-you must be aware of that.

How can customer service efficiency be improved, especially in terms of problem resolution speed?

CZ: I’m a strong supporter of improving customer service efficiency. When Binance first started, we set a policy that customer inquiries must be responded to within 24 hours, and that was one of the key factors behind our success. Later, we raised the target to respond within 5 minutes. Although it’s difficult to achieve during peak times, we’re still working hard to improve. If the response time reaches two days, that’s definitely negative feedback, and I’ll give them feedback to push for greater efficiency.

Advice for female KOLs: How to handle attacks and grow?

CZ: For female KOLs, the first thing to understand is that the world isn’t always completely fair, and there are indeed differences between men and women. Half of the people I work with are women, and they tend to be more resilient and persistent, but they’re also more susceptible to emotional impact. As a KOL, especially a female KOL, you need to learn to handle online criticism and attacks, as there will always be a small group of people who target women specifically. Accepting these criticisms and ignoring the less important ones is a personal choice.

Regarding career development for KOLs, I’d recommend collaborating with projects that have potential, especially stable, large platforms or promising startups. While a big platform like Binance is stable, startup platforms may offer more opportunities, like equity or tokens. It’s also important to choose a sector that suits you, whether it’s memecoins, utility coins, or other areas. The key to career development is selecting an industry with enough room for growth, and the crypto space certainly offers that, whereas the AI industry doesn’t rely as much on KOLs.

Overall, the key to KOL development is to first choose the right industry, then choose quality clients or platforms.

What is the future plan for the live streaming section on Binance Square?

CZ: I’m not directly responsible for the product planning of Binance, but personally, I’d love to see a platform where users can freely interact and the quality of those interactions is very high. When content creators or streamers can have a clear income stream, and users enjoy high-quality content, the platform’s financial effects will naturally increase.

Currently, Binance Square’s content leans towards trading and finance, with a bit of a lack of entertainment value. I think we should enhance the fun aspects while also improving content quality. Additionally, the platform should ensure that creators earn substantial rewards, and users can also benefit from supporting these creators.

Binance Square’s natural advantage is its trading platform features, making it easy to implement functions like tipping, transfers, and social trading. I hope that in the future, the platform’s live streaming, chatting, trading, and payment features will be fully integrated into a super app.

However, the specific planning will be handled by the two CEOs of Binance, and I’ll try to stay out of the details as much as possible.

What is the next target for BNB?

CZ: I’ll refrain from discussing specific numbers, as there’s no clear basis for them. I believe the BNB ecosystem is relatively stable and very large. What I’m most proud of is the many builders here who are very active, and the community is incredibly strong. Currently, the potential for BNB’s community growth is huge, and I personally hold a significant amount of BNB. So, I’m very optimistic about BNB’s future. Although I won’t discuss specific targets, I’m confident that the community’s support will help us continue to improve. Thank you all for your support!

Thoughts on community live streaming and community coins

CZ: I can’t comment on individual coins. However, regarding the policies for live streaming, I’m not clear on the specific details. Generally speaking, Binance’s stance is to avoid involvement in politics and refrain from any inappropriate content (such as explicit material). Discussions about cryptocurrencies, including technology, coins, market analysis, and news, are allowed. While political topics may not be important to many retail investors, Binance’s official policy is to avoid participating in political discussions.

As for live streaming and community coins, the basic principle is that we should respect others and avoid doing anything that harms ourselves or others. Regarding specific coins or community tokens and how they will evolve in the future, I can’t make a specific comment.

Will altcoins experience another surge?

CZ: The definition of altcoins may vary for different people. Generally speaking, in the long run, the crypto space can’t have just one dominant coin like Bitcoin. Right now, there are thousands of coins, and the top few hundred by market capitalization mostly have real-world use cases or value. So, a surge in altcoins will definitely happen again in the future.

Currently, Bitcoin serves as the “reserve currency” of digital currencies and holds its value well, but it’s not very suitable for daily transactions due to high transaction fees and low programmability-no smart contracts, for example. Therefore, in the short term, many public blockchains and coins with different functionalities will emerge. These coins will go through cycles, experiencing both bull and bear markets.

As for whether there will be another altcoin surge in the future, it’s certain that there will be. However, the specifics-like the timing, which coins will rise, and their scale-are difficult to predict, and no one can foresee them accurately.

Insights on risks and opportunities in the crypto industry after the U.S. legal events

CZ: This experience has certainly given me a new understanding of the risks and opportunities in the crypto industry. First of all, the power of nations, especially the U.S., is immense, so we have to be especially cautious about compliance. I’ve always held the principle of not harming others or myself and following basic principles in everything I do. However, sometimes laws can present challenges for us. For example, the U.S. Bank Secrecy Act made me realize that even having one U.S. user on a platform could expose us to potential liabilities over the next five years.

When Binance first started, I was in Shanghai, and as someone with a technical background, I didn’t have much understanding of compliance. So, one of the biggest lessons I’ve learned from this experience is that when building projects, we must always ensure they are legal and compliant and respect the laws of each country. As a nascent industry, the crypto space will always face risks, and we need to learn how to protect ourselves and effectively mitigate these risks.

Will there be a bull market in the next 3 to 4 months?

CZ: It’s very difficult to accurately predict the market trend in the next 3 to 4 months. I don’t know anyone who can precisely forecast market changes for the upcoming months. The most influential factor might be the policies of the U.S. president, as they could impact the global economy, but even someone at that level finds it hard to make accurate predictions.

Any advice for beginners getting into futures or contracts?

CZ: For beginners, I wouldn’t recommend jumping into futures or contracts. These are high-risk, high-difficulty products. While the potential returns can be high, they’re not suitable for people who are just starting out. My advice is that if you do want to try, start with a very small amount of capital, and once you’ve mastered the basic skills, you can gradually increase your investment. In general, beginners are not suited to dive directly into contracts.

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