Review: Major Institutions' Bitcoin Bottom Price Predictions for This Cycle

TL;DR：

After reaching an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a downward cycle. On July 1, 2026, BTC briefly fell to around $57,800, representing a maximum drawdown of approximately 54% from its all-time high. As of July 14, the price had recovered to around $62,000.

As the market enters a phase of searching for a bottom, institutions including Standard Chartered, Galaxy Research, CryptoQuant, NYDIG, and 10x Research have issued their respective assessments. However, these forecasts are not all of the same nature. Some institutions have provided base-case bottom estimates, while others have identified key support levels or bearish scenarios. Some figures are merely technical targets that would come into play if specific price levels were breached.

Based on publicly available views, institutional forecasts are concentrated mainly in two ranges: $50,000-$60,000 and $40,000-$46,000. Forecasts from KOLs are more widely dispersed, with the lowest estimates extending below $30,000.

Standard Chartered: $59,000 May Be the Bottom of This Cycle

On June 12, Geoffrey Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, said that Bitcoin may have already formed a cyclical bottom at around $59,000 and that the current “crypto winter” had ended.

Kendrick attributed the preceding market decline to outflows from spot ETFs, reduced purchasing capacity among digital asset treasury companies such as Strategy, and the rotation of investor capital into AI-related assets. At the time, Standard Chartered maintained its year-end 2026 Bitcoin price target of $100,000.

However, Bitcoin subsequently fell to around $57,800 on July 1, briefly dropping below Standard Chartered’s proposed bottom of $59,000. Although its forecast was relatively close to the actual low, this alone is not sufficient to confirm that the market has completed its final bottoming process.

10x Research: Forecast Lowered From $55,000 to Around $50,000

On June 24, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen said that Bitcoin could form a low after falling to around $55,000. He argued that a stronger US dollar, tighter liquidity, and seasonal market factors could continue to place pressure on BTC.

On July 1, 10x Research further updated its Elliott Wave model. The firm had previously expected Bitcoin to complete Wave A of its decline at around $63,000, rebound into the $80,000-$90,000 range, and then fall toward approximately $50,000 through Wave C. Its latest model indicated a potential price range of approximately $46,628-$50,732.

Therefore, 10x Research has gradually revised its estimate downward from an initial $55,000 to around $50,000. However, the firm also believes that Bitcoin would begin to offer long-term allocation value once it falls below $55,000.

CryptoQuant: $53,600 May Represent a Valuation Floor

In a report published in June, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said that Bitcoin had entered an on-chain valuation range, but demand remained weak and the market had yet to show a complete capitulation signal.

The report showed that Bitcoin’s realized price was approximately $53,600 at the time. The realized price represents the average cost basis of all BTC based on the price at which each coin last moved on-chain. Historically, it has often been regarded as an important valuation floor during bear markets.

Using indicators including the MVRV Z-Score, CryptoQuant also identified $55,000-$60,000 as a potential bottoming range that warranted close attention. However, the firm stressed that a cyclical bottom could only be further confirmed if spot demand, ETF flows, and stablecoin liquidity improved simultaneously.

Citi: $53,000 Under a Bearish Scenario

On July 1, Citi lowered its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $112,000 to $82,000, citing factors including continued spot ETF outflows, stalled progress on US crypto legislation, and weakening investor demand.

Under a bearish scenario involving an economic recession and continued ETF outflows, Citi estimated Bitcoin’s value at approximately $53,000.

It should be noted that $53,000 was not Citi’s explicit forecast for the cyclical bottom. Instead, it was a 12-month bearish scenario valuation based on the assumptions of a recession and continued capital outflows.

NYDIG: $53,700 as a Cost-Basis Level, With $37,900 Under an Extreme Drawdown Scenario

In a report published on June 5, NYDIG said that Bitcoin was not far from the zone associated with historical bear market bottoms. However, the available market evidence remained mixed and was insufficient to confirm a final bottom.

The report identified the 1.0x MVRV level at approximately $53,700 as an important cost-basis threshold. At this level, Bitcoin’s market price would be close to the average on-chain cost basis of all holders.

NYDIG also calculated that if Bitcoin were to fall by approximately 70% from its $126,000 high, the price would decline to around $37,900. However, this figure was a stress scenario based on the scale of historical bear market drawdowns, rather than NYDIG’s base-case forecast.

Galaxy Research: Base-Case Bottom of $40,000-$46,000

Galaxy Research has provided one of the clearest and relatively more bearish base-case forecasts among major institutions. In its June report, Galaxy said that Bitcoin could form a cyclical bottom in the $40,000-$46,000 range sometime between the present and the fourth quarter of 2026.

Galaxy developed a Bitcoin bottom-monitoring framework consisting of 13 indicators, covering price drawdowns, holder losses, realized price, miner stress, long-term holder behavior, and market cycle duration. At the time of the report, only four indicators had been fully triggered. This suggested that although Bitcoin had entered the later stages of the bear market, the market might not yet have completed a sufficient correction in either magnitude or duration.

Galaxy therefore identified $40,000-$46,000 as its base-case bottom range. It also warned that further deterioration in the macroeconomic environment or among digital asset treasury companies could expose the market to deeper tail risks.

Bitfinex: $53,400 as Structural Support, With a Potential Decline Toward $40,000 if Demand Remains Weak

In its June 29 report, Bitfinex Alpha identified Bitcoin’s realized price of approximately $53,400 as an important structural support level.

The report said that Bitcoin could complete its bottoming process around this level if ETF outflows slowed and spot buying recovered. If demand remained weak, however, the market could fall further toward $40,000 in the fourth quarter.

Bitcoin quickly recovered after falling to approximately $57,800 on July 1. In a subsequent report, Bitfinex said that the move may have been a “false breakdown”, although there was still insufficient evidence at the time to confirm that the final bottom had been established.

22V Research: A Break Below $60,000 Could Point to a Technical Target of $40,000

John Roque, a technical strategist at 22V Research, said that Bitcoin was testing $60,000 as its first downside target. If the price decisively broke below that level, it could fall further toward $40,000.

The $40,000 figure is therefore a conditional target that would come into play following a break below a key technical level, rather than an unconditional forecast by 22V Research for the bottom of this cycle.

Other Institutions: $31,000-$40,000 Mainly Represents Deep Bear Market Scenarios

In February, John Blank, chief equity strategist at Zacks Investment Research, said that Bitcoin could fall to around $40,000 within the following six to eight months if the current crypto winter lasted 12–18 months. His assessment was based mainly on technical patterns, declining liquidity, and historical bear market cycles.

Stifel previously identified a potential target of approximately $38,000, while Ned Davis Research said that Bitcoin could fall to around $31,000 if the market entered a full-scale “crypto winter”. These figures largely represent prolonged bear market or severe stress scenarios, rather than the institutions’ current base-case consensus.

Strategy and Metaplanet: No Explicit Bottom Forecasts, but Long-Term Treasury Strategies Continue

Strategy and Metaplanet have not provided explicit Bitcoin bottom price forecasts, but their treasury activities remain important variables when institutions assess market demand.

Michael Saylor said that the recent outflow of approximately $4 billion from Bitcoin ETFs reflected a rotation of capital into the AI sector, rather than any fundamental damage to Bitcoin itself. In his view, volatility continues to create opportunities.

However, Strategy has begun managing its balance sheet more flexibly. Between June 29 and July 5, the company sold 3,588 BTC for approximately $216 million, primarily to fund preferred stock distributions. During the latest week, the company neither bought nor sold BTC. Instead, it raised approximately $467 million through common stock sales, increasing its US dollar reserves to around $3 billion. As of the latest disclosure, Strategy held 843,775 BTC.

Metaplanet, meanwhile, continues to pursue its long-term objective of expanding its BTC reserves, targeting holdings of 100,000 BTC by the end of 2026 and 210,000 BTC by the end of 2027. The positions of both companies are better categorized as long-term treasury allocation strategies rather than short-term bottom forecasts.

KOL Forecasts: From $57,000 to Below $30,000

In addition to institutions, on-chain analysts, traders, and industry figures have issued varying forecasts for the bottom of this cycle.

In April, Michael Terpin said that Bitcoin had not yet reached its final bottom and predicted that the price could fall to around $57,000 by October. The July 1 low of $57,800 was already close to his forecast, although it remains unclear whether that level marked the final bottom.

In June, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen said that $59,000 was the first support level to watch. If it was breached, the next important zone would be $48,000-$52,000. Based on this, Biteye summarized her bottom forecast as approximately $50,000.

In March, on-chain analyst Willy Woo used traditional on-chain models including CVDD to place the potential bottom in the $46,000-$54,000 range. At the time, the CVDD floor was around $45,500 and was expected to rise gradually over time. He also cautioned that these models had only been tested through four complete bear markets and that prices could fall further if the macroeconomic environment deteriorated significantly.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the mining pool BTC.TOP, predicted that Bitcoin could fall to $42,000-$44,000 in the fourth quarter of 2026. His assessment was based on Strategy’s market capitalization relative to the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings, as well as the four-year cycle and Bitcoin’s declining volatility across successive cycles.

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes Bitcoin could fall to around $40,000 over the next six months. He has used options structures to hedge against downside risk, but has also said that he remains net long Bitcoin over the long term. Therefore, $40,000 represents his medium-term risk assessment rather than a long-term bearish target.

KOL WolfyXBT said that he was still waiting for Bitcoin to reach $35,000, reflecting the more bearish view held by some traders regarding the scale of the current drawdown.

According to a summary compiled by Biteye, crypto investor Tony Ling expects Bitcoin to enter the $30,000-$40,000 range in the fourth quarter of 2026. He also believes that the market could subsequently be affected by a prolonged Nasdaq bear market and the bursting of the AI bubble. Because his complete original post has not been located, this view should retain the attribution “according to a summary compiled by Biteye”.

Technical analyst Tony Severino continues to maintain a long-term target of approximately $34,500, corresponding to a drawdown of around 72% from Bitcoin’s all-time high. He expects the cyclical low to occur around October.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has offered the most bearish forecast. He believes that if Bitcoin fails to regain $75,000, the price could still fall to $10,000 under an extreme scenario. It should be emphasized that this is McGlone’s personal analysis, not an official institutional forecast from Bloomberg, and it does not represent the market’s prevailing expectation.

No Unified Consensus Has Formed Around $44,000-$46,000

Based on the views outlined above, it is not currently accurate to conclude that “institutions generally believe the bottom of this cycle will be between $44,000 and $46,000”.

Standard Chartered believes that $59,000 may have already marked the cyclical bottom. The key levels identified by CryptoQuant, NYDIG, Citi, and 10x Research are concentrated mainly around $50,000-$55,000. Galaxy Research, Bitfinex, and Arthur Hayes place the next, deeper layer of risk in the $40,000-$46,000 range. Forecasts below $30,000-$40,000 are mostly based on assumptions involving a deep bear market, a macroeconomic recession, or further deterioration in the technical structure.

The core reason for the divergence is not only that different parties use different models, but also that they make different assumptions about the future macroeconomic environment. Whether spot ETFs resume inflows, whether digital asset treasury companies such as Strategy continue selling BTC, the direction of Federal Reserve policy and the US dollar, and whether investor capital continues rotating into AI-related assets could all affect the ultimate bottom.

Therefore, $40,000-$46,000 can be viewed as a closely watched secondary support zone and the base-case bottom range for some institutions. However, it cannot be described as a unified market consensus.

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