Summary of Trump's Speech and Why the Market Reaction Was Tepid

Jul 28, 2024

By: Hu Feitong

Translated by: WuBlockchain

The Bitcoin 2024 Conference is the largest Bitcoin event, and this year it was particularly notable due to the participation of Trump and his team.

On the afternoon of July 27th, U.S. time, and in the early hours of the 28th, Beijing time, Trump delivered a nearly 50-minute speech that was quite impactful, explicitly supporting Bitcoin and digital currency innovation. The summary of his speech quickly spread through social networks, and most people have probably seen it. However, what is interesting is that despite such positive news, the entire digital currency market reacted very calmly, with prices barely fluctuating.

First, let’s look at what Trump said, and then we’ll discuss why the market remained so calm.

Summary of Trump’s Speech

Many of the summaries people saw were distilled based on the interests of the Web3 industry. However, after watching the entire speech, you would understand that its main purpose was still to garner votes. Simply put, the goal was for you to vote for him in November. If elected, he promised to implement favorable policies for the industry, whereas if you voted for the other side, you would suffer, and your good days would be over.

The speech heavily emphasized self-praise, disparaged his opponents, and made some promises to the Bitcoin community, which served as his bargaining chips for votes. What were those promises? According to the timeline of the speech, they were as follows:

● The rise of Bitcoin from an idea on an anonymous message board to becoming the ninth most valuable asset in the world is a great innovation.

● The U.S. must lead in technology, science, manufacturing, artificial intelligence, space, and energy production. The U.S. must dominate Bitcoin and related innovations, becoming the capital of Bitcoin.

● Bitcoin will be mined, minted, and manufactured in the U.S. If it goes to the moon, it will launch from the U.S.

● The Biden/Harris administration opposes Bitcoin because it represents freedom, sovereignty, and independence from government coercion and control.

● On the day Trump is sworn in, the anti-crypto campaign by Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, and Elizabeth Warren will end. He will fire Gary Gensler on day one!

● Trump promised to immediately shut down the “Chokepoint 2.0” operation and create a Presidential Advisory Committee on Bitcoin and Cryptocurrency. Within 100 days, he would establish fair rules written by those who want crypto to thrive.

● There will never be a central bank digital currency (CBDC). He will defend the right to self-custody, transaction freedom, freedom of association, and freedom of speech.

● He will support dollar stablecoins and global Bitcoin savings. He recognizes that the current U.S. government’s actions are a threat to the dollar, not Bitcoin.

● The Biden/Harris administration presided over the largest inflation in U.S. history. Inflation destroyed Weimar Germany. Bitcoin holders understand inflation better than anyone. Inflation is a hidden tax and a national disgrace.

● Make the U.S. the world’s lowest-cost energy producer, utilizing its natural resources, and turn it into a Bitcoin mining powerhouse.

● The current U.S. government has violated the most important rule: never sell your Bitcoin. He will stop the U.S. government from selling its Bitcoin. This will serve as the core of a strategic national Bitcoin reserve.

● He will commute Ross Ulbricht’s life sentence (the founder of Silk Road) to time served.

● He promises to be the president the U.S. deserves, one who supports innovation, supports Bitcoin, and supports technology. He will make America and Bitcoin stronger, richer, freer, and greater.

Trump also mentioned China several times in his speech, indicating that in his view, China is the U.S.’s biggest competitor and the most innovative country globally.

Why the Market Reaction Was Tepid

Trump’s current standing looks good, and he is likely to become the next president. If he is elected and fulfills his promises, it would be a huge boon for Bitcoin, blockchain, and the entire Web3 industry. But why was the market’s reaction so subdued? Beyond the factors of market expectations already being priced in, the fundamental reason is that many major investors didn’t take his words seriously.

In fact, when the news of Trump’s team agreeing to participate in the Bitcoin 2024 Conference was confirmed, the market did react with a slight price increase. However, most of the promises made in this speech had either been mentioned before or were anticipated, aligning with expectations, thus leaving little room for further price increases.

Additionally, the key points are:

1. This is just one of countless campaign speeches. People have long been accustomed to the promises of American politicians, listening to their words and watching their actions. The real test lies in their actions, which is still premature at this stage.

2. Trump is known for his outspoken nature. This speech, in fact, contradicted his earlier stance, indicating a possible change in his personal policies. When Trump was in the White House a few years ago, he was against Bitcoin; in other words, his support for Bitcoin is not consistent.

3. Trump is one of the few presidents in U.S. history lacking legal training. For example, Gensler’s position at the SEC is not one that can be easily dismissed. Adequate reasons are required for such a removal. Simply put, the president does not have the authority to do so. This was established in the 1935 Supreme Court case of Humphrey’s Executor v. United States:

a. “The authority of Congress, in creating quasi-legislative or quasi-judicial agencies, to require them to act in discharge of their duties independently of executive control cannot well be doubted; and that authority includes, as an appropriate incident, power to fix the period during which they shall continue in office, and to forbid their removal except for cause in the meantime.”

b. The SEC is a quasi-judicial agency, independent of executive control.

4. Similarly, other promises, even if Trump wants to push for their implementation, will face constant obstacles. It’s not something he can accomplish at will. We can recall how difficult it was for Trump to promote the construction of the border wall with Mexico, and how challenging it was for Obama to push for healthcare reform.

Conclusion

Despite the subdued market reaction, this is still a long-term positive for BTC. At the very least, it indicates that the crypto industry is now an undeniable force that politicians must consider when formulating policies. This is a significant advancement compared to a few years ago. Regardless of who comes to power, they will inevitably push forward in terms of regulation, compliance, and innovation in the digital currency space.

Additionally, Trump is the first presidential candidate to accept cryptocurrency donations. During this Bitcoin conference, they held a fundraising event with ticket prices reaching up to $844,600.

Moreover, the organizers of the 2024 Bitcoin Conference stated that they had briefly discussed with Vice President Kamala Harris the possibility of her attending the event, but she ultimately declined the invitation.

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