The Pumpfun Presale Through My Eyes - From the Founder of IOSG

Jul 09, 2025

Original Author: Jocy@IOSGVC

Compiler: WuBlockchain

Original Source Link: https://x.com/jocyiosg/status/1942977473203011813

After a deep dive into its astonishing past performance and concerning current trajectory, I believe this is very likely a high-risk gamble rather than a sound investment. Below are my core views. This does not constitute any investment advice — please treat it with caution.

First, acknowledging its glorious past.

Since its launch in early 2024, Pump.fun has experienced explosive growth, generating approximately $700 million in cumulative protocol revenue, making it one of the most profitable crypto startups. The team has fewer than 20 members, with an average age of just 21 — an impressive achievement.

However, the myth is fading. Data doesn’t lie.

Reality check:

• Revenue collapse: Daily revenue peaked at over $7 million on January 23, 2025, but has recently plunged by more than 92%, down to about $500,000.

• Market cooling: The market cap of graduated projects has dropped from tens of millions of dollars to a rock-bottom range of $50,000–$100,000.

• Losing share: According to the latest data, competitor LetsBonk has a market share of 51%, while Pump.fun has declined to 39.9%.

Next, examining its tokenomics and risk exposure.

This round of ICO allocates 15% of tokens to retail and 18% to institutions, for a total of 33% sold, corresponding to $1.32 billion in fundraising. Including historical fee revenue, the Pump.fun team will hold nearly $2 billion in cash.

What does this mean for public investors?

An extremely unfriendly risk exposure:

• Opaque governance: The decision-making process is a mystery.

• Lack of transparency in team/investor unlock terms: This is the most fatal issue. There is no public lock-up or linear release schedule, meaning insiders could sell immediately upon launch, shifting most of the risk to public investors.

• Overvalued fundraising: Raising funds at a $4 billion valuation during a meme-coin downturn has already overdrawn future growth potential.

The core question: What is the team’s motivation?

I believe the team has neither the willingness nor the ability to “support the price” or “control the market.” They have already accumulated vast wealth through protocol fees, and this ICO seems more like a final “value realization” — exit liquidity. In a market environment with severely insufficient buy-side demand, such a high valuation simply cannot be supported. This is fundamentally different from Hyperliquid’s valuation logic.

Conclusion and suggestions

A reasonable token model should build a long-term balanced relationship among the project team, early investors, and public investors. Pump.fun’s current plan, due to a serious lack of transparency and insider restrictions, completely breaks that balance.

Therefore, I believe this public fundraising is a highly speculative gamble, not a fundamentals-based investment. The funds you allocate should be fully risk capital that you are prepared to lose entirely.

If you still have confidence in the team, I suggest:

• Be patient: Wait until the token has traded publicly for at least one week before making a decision, to observe the real market response.

• Participate in stages: Divide your intended investment into parts and enter in phases — one week, one month after launch — to effectively reduce your risk exposure.

The market’s enthusiasm for meme launchpads and altcoins is clearly waning. Please be cautious — very cautious.

Wu Blockchain

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