WuBlockchain Weekly: U.S. CPI Below Expectations, Trump to Attend Bitcoin Conference, Ethereum Spot ETF May Launch Next Week, etc

Jul 12, 2024

1. U.S. June Unadjusted Core CPI Annual Rate Announced at 3.3%, Below Expectations link

The United States announced the unadjusted core CPI annual rate for June at 3.3%, slightly below the expected 3.40% and down from the previous 3.40%. The seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate came in at -0.1%, against a forecast of 0.10% and a previous value of 0.00%. The seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate for June was 0.1%, compared to an expected 0.20% and the previous 0.20%. The unadjusted CPI annual rate for June was 3%, slightly below the forecast of 3.10% and down from the previous 3.30%.

June’s unadjusted core CPI annual rate has fallen to its lowest level since April 2021. The seasonally adjusted core CPI monthly rate at 0.1% is the lowest since August 2021.

QCP Capital noted that Thursday evening’s CPI release has garnered market attention, predicting a 70% probability of a rate cut in September. Despite continued gains in the stock market, the crypto market has yet to reflect this optimism. BTC’s early morning volatility increased by 5 percentage points, with risk reversals favoring upward movement. The anticipated launch of ETH spot ETF trading, coupled with the softened CPI data, could serve as a catalyst for a breakthrough in the market.

2. Citi: Fed to Begin Consecutive Rate Cuts from September, Eight Times in a Row link

In his address to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that rising inflation is not the only risk we face. He acknowledged significant progress in reducing inflation, with the job market appearing as robust as it was before the pandemic without overheating. Powell indicated that decisions on rate cuts would be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Currently, with inflation resuming its downward trend and the labor market showing signs of cooling, the central bank is paying closer attention to the timing of potential rate cuts. He noted that recent inflation data shows further modest progress, and more positive data would bolster confidence that inflation is steadily moving towards the 2% target.

Analysts at Citi Research predict that the Federal Reserve will begin substantial rate cuts within the next few months, continuing through to next summer. They anticipate that the Fed will initiate a series of eight consecutive 25-basis-point rate cuts starting this September, culminating in a total reduction of 200 basis points by July 2025. This would lower the benchmark interest rate from its current range of 5.25%-5.5% to 3.25%-3.5%. Citi highlights that signs of economic slowdown, weakening inflation, rising unemployment rates, and a negative turn in the services index all heighten the risk of a sharp decline in economic activity and an accelerated pace of rate cuts.

3. Trump to Speak at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference link

The organizers of the upcoming Bitcoin conference in Nashville, Tennessee, have warned speakers that a “very special guest” has disrupted the event schedule, leading many in the industry to believe that Donald Trump may attend. According to an earlier report by Axios, the Republican presidential candidate had discussed attending the annual Bitcoin conference with the organizers. The conference spokesperson has yet to comment. On Wednesday afternoon, the organizers informed speakers via email: “Due to a very special guest (to be announced) speaking at the conference, we have rearranged many of the speeches in the agenda.” Bitcoin Magazine reported that Trump will speak at the 2024 Bitcoin conference.

Additionally, a poll funded by Paradigm shows that former President Trump’s recent supportive stance on cryptocurrency could earn him more support from Republican voters in the 2024 election. The poll, conducted by Echelon Insights, indicates that 13% of Republicans who were not planning to vote for Trump now view him more favorably due to his crypto stance. The majority of respondents (60%) believe Congress should establish regulatory rules for crypto businesses, and Republicans generally express dissatisfaction with the current financial system. The poll also reveals that 28% of respondents have engaged in cryptocurrency investments, with higher percentages among younger, male, and non-white groups. Moreover, 94% of respondents believe personal financial records should remain private.

4. U.S. Republican Party Supports Multiple Pro-Crypto Policies in 2024 Platform link

The Republican National Committee has expressed support for several pro-cryptocurrency policies in its official platform for the 2024 U.S. election. According to official documents released by Republican presidential candidate Trump’s campaign team on Monday, the platform pledges to end the “illegal and un-American crackdown” on the U.S. crypto industry. In addition to opposing the creation of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), the platform promises to “defend the right to Bitcoin mining” and allow cryptocurrency holders to self-custody their tokens. The document states: “We will defend the right to transact without government oversight and control.”

5. German Government Transfers Over 30,000 Bitcoins This Week link

This week, the German government continues to transfer Bitcoin from its address to exchanges and liquidity providers. The holdings in this address have decreased from 40,000 BTC earlier this week to less than 10,000 BTC. Over 30,000 BTC have been transferred out this week alone, amounting to over $1.74 billion. As of the latest update, the address now holds approximately 6,146 BTC, valued at about $356 million, which represents approximately 12% of the original amount seized from the pirated movie website Movie2k back in January.

Crypto Assets TAX Report — Professional,Effortless,Crypto-native. Sponsored by FinTax.

6. The ETF Store President: Ethereum Spot ETF Likely to Launch the Week of July 15 link

Public documents reveal that on Wednesday, Invesco Galaxy and BlackRock each submitted new 8-A12B filings for their Ethereum spot ETFs to the SEC. On Thursday, asset management giant Franklin filed an 8-A12B application for its Franklin Ethereum Trust with the SEC. The submission of the 8-A form indicates that once the product is approved, it can be traded on the exchange.

Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, tweeted that he would be shocked if a spot Ethereum ETF is not trading within the next two weeks. There is a possibility it could launch late next week, but more likely during the week of July 15th. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas predicts that the SEC might approve the spot Ethereum ETF on July 18th, although this date is speculative but considered reasonable. Notably, since the unexpected approval of the 19b-4 form at the end of May, ETH prices have fallen by over 20%.

7. Cboe Submits 19b-4 Form to SEC for VanEck and 21Shares Solana ETF link

Cboe BZX compared these products with the spot Ethereum ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs approved over the past year, asserting that Solana is resistant to price manipulation. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas tweeted that the final deadline for the Solana ETF is mid-March 2025. However, the most crucial date before that is November. If Biden wins, the approval of these ETFs seems unlikely. If Trump wins, then anything is possible.

8. Goldman Sachs Plans to Launch Three Tokenization Projects by Year-End link

Goldman Sachs’ Global Head of Digital Assets, Matthew McDermott, announced plans to launch three tokenization projects by the end of this year. These projects will include the first tokenization initiative in the U.S., focusing on issuing “real-world assets” such as money market funds and real estate on public or private blockchains. McDermott also revealed that Goldman Sachs is expanding its range of crypto products, including cash-settled crypto derivatives trading at clients’ request, and participating in the Bitcoin ETF market.

9. TRM Labs: Hackers Stole $1.38 Billion in Cryptocurrency in H1 2024 link

TRM Labs data reveals that the value of stolen cryptocurrencies in the first half of 2024 reached $1.38 billion, more than double the $657 million stolen during the same period last year. The top five hacks this year accounted for 70% of the total stolen amount. Primary methods of attack included the exposure of private keys and mnemonic phrases. The largest theft this year involved over $300 million worth of Bitcoin stolen from Japan’s DMM Bitcoin exchange.

10. Vitalik: Ethereum Needs to Prepare for Potential 51% Attack link

Vitalik, the founder of Ethereum, recently emphasized at the ETHCC conference the importance of Ethereum preparing for potential 51% attacks. Such attacks involve malicious actors (or coordinated groups) gaining control over more than half of a blockchain network’s computing power, enabling them to manipulate and control its operations, such as censoring transactions or executing double spends. He suggested that networks should be equipped with automated response mechanisms to reduce societal burdens. In case of an attack, honest validators should automatically switch to a forked chain to prevent transaction censorship.

Vitalik also underscored the widespread adoption of light clients and support for zk-EVM, as well as resistance to quantum computing. Additionally, he called for simplifying protocols to enhance the experience for developers and users alike.

Fundraising

Solana’s shared sequencer Rome has announced the completion of a $9 million funding round. link
Ampleforth’s Flatcoin project, a subsidiary, has secured $1 million in strategic funding. link
Term Finance has raised $5.5 million and launched its token functionality. link
Web3 identity layer idOS has completed a $4.5 million funding round. link
Cross-chain search engine Dora has secured $5.5 million in funding. link
Web3 infrastructure provider ThirdFi has announced the completion of a $2 million token financing. link
SocialFi platform RECRD has successfully raised $4 million. link

Learn more, check out crypto-fundraising.info.

Wu Blockchain

Discussion about this post